Economic growth moderated in April, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago national activity index, MarketWatch reported. The index fell to negative 0.32 in April from positive 0.34 in March. However, the three-month average rose to 0.19 from 0.04 in March -- the highest level since November 2013. The index is a weighted average of 85 economic indicators, designed so that a reading of zero is equivalent to trend growth. When the three-month average exceeds 0.7, there's an increasing likelihood of sustained increasing inflation, and when it's below negative 0.7, there's an increasing likelihood a recession has begun.