CNNMoney: Housing market recovery could fizzle

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Plenty of housing experts and economists are expecting the housing market recovery to gain steam in the new year. But a number of factors could still derail the whole thing, CNNMoney reports. 

 

Among them:

  • Investors cashing out. Institutional investors who played a pivotal role in the housing market’s recovery by purchasing hundreds of thousands of properties now may sell to lock in substantial gains. RealtyTrac found that institutional investors who bought in 2012 could achieve returns of 38 percent to 43 percent if they sold now.
  • Foreign buyers stop buying. Foreign buyers have also helped prop up the housing market in recent years.While sales to Chinese buyers have remained strong, sales to buyers from Europe — where the economies are struggling — are starting to lag, according to Lawrence Yun, an economist with the National Association of Realtors. Russian buyers, for example, have endured a triple whammy from cratering oil prices, a plunging ruble and international sanctions.
  • Incomes fail to keep up with home prices. Despite a much rosier outlook for jobs, incomes are still not keeping pace with housing market prices, said Jed Kolko, chief economist for Trulia. And that could make it hard for buyers to afford homes in the areas they want to live in.
  • Lenders will be too skittish. For Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, the key risk to the housing market recovery is still the difficulty many potential home buyers have getting mortgages. Even though Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently eased lending standards, it doesn’t mean lenders are going to take it easier on borrowers. In fact, many lenders may still be too nervous to lend to borrowers who don’t have near perfect credit or large cash down payments.
  • A sharp increase in mortgage rates. While Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae, doesn’t expect to see a sharp jump in mortgage rates, he said the Federal Reserve could surprise everyone and send its benchmark interest rate higher than it’s projecting.