The Elbert Files: Linking 2015 with 1900
Some of my favorite census data are from the years 1900 and 2015. 1900 was when Iowa’s population topped 2 million for the first time, making us the 10th most populous of the then-45 states with 2,231,853 residents. 2015 has a similar significance that I’ll get to in a minute.
First, you need to know that Iowa was a booming place at the beginning of the 20th century. In every census leading up to 1900, Iowa’s population had grown by double-digit increases; often well above the national averages.
In 1900 Iowa had more people than California (1.5 million), Florida (528,000), Arizona, (123,000) and Nevada (42,000) combined. We were also larger than Wisconsin (2.1 million) and Minnesota (1.8 million). But the growth ended abruptly during the first decade of the 20th century.
Between 1900 and 1910, Iowa was the only state to lose population. The loss was just 7,000, but it came at a time when Wisconsin and Minnesota each gained more than 250,000 residents and Nebraska and South Dakota added more than 100,000 each. Between 1900 and 2000, the U.S. population more than tripled to 281 million, while Iowa’s increase was a paltry 31 percent to 2.9 million. Why did Iowa’s population quit growing?
The simple answer is the state didn’t need more people. The settlement of Iowa was largely driven by the agricultural economy of the 19th century. Iowa had some of the most fertile soil in the world, which the state’s new citizens divided up into family-sized farms and maintained for generations.
Nationally, an erosion of population from rural to urban areas began well before 1900. It occurred more quickly where the soil was not productive, and more slowly in areas, like Iowa, with good soil. Throughout the 20th century, as agriculture became more mechanized and more efficient, the pace of rural flight increased. The exodus from rural Iowa began in earnest after World War II. Many ended up in Des Moines, where the population more than tripled between 1900 and 1960, when the city’s population peaked at 208,982.
The 1960s are also when a new exodus to the suburbs began. By 1980, the Des Moines population had dropped back to 191,003. Slowly the city began growing again, but it wasn’t until last year that the head count passed the 1960 record, climbing to 210,330, according to the 2015 census.
Meanwhile, Des Moines’ suburbs and surrounding areas were growing at an ever-increasing pace, fueled by financial services. Des Moines had always been home to banks and insurers, several of which benefited from waves of consolidation that began in the 1980s.
The growing insurance companies and banks helped make over the face of downtown Des Moines and West Des Moines.
By the end of the first decade of the 21st century, the influx of rural residents — along with newcomers from other states and nations — produced gains worthy of national attention.
The growth can be seen in recently released census data for 2015. Those numbers show that between 2000 and 2015 Iowa’s population growth (6.75 percent) was less than half the national average (14.21 percent). Meanwhile, the increase for the Des Moines metro area (Polk, Dallas and Warren counties) was 29.39 percent, a little more than twice the national average.
In fact, the Des Moines metro area is growing at a pace that has not been seen in Iowa since before 1900.