Fed exit no threat to housing market

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The U.S. housing market is poised to withstand the removal of government and Federal Reserve stimulus programs and rebound later in the year, contributing to annual economic growth for the first time since 2006, Bloomberg reported today.

Increases in jobs, credit and affordable homes will help offset the end of the Federal Reserve’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities this month and the expiration of a federal home buyer tax credit in April.

Homes sales will rise about 6 percent this year, and housing will account for 0.25 percentage point of the economy’s 3.6 percent growth, according to forecasts by Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist for Barclays Capital in New York.

“I would bet even odds that we’re at a bottom and that we’re going to see improvement in the coming months,” said Karl Case, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index and a professor of economics at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Mass.

An improving market would allay concerns at the Federal Reserve that sales will decline again after the tax credit expires. It would also give Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues, who meet this week in Washington, a freer rein to ultimately raise the interest rate for overnight loans among banks from near zero.

“They’re going to be tightening credit sooner than people expect,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. He forecasts that the Fed’s first increase since 2006 may come as soon as June.

Home builders’ shares reflect the optimism. The 12-member Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding index hit a five- month high March 9 on speculation the expanding economy will boost sales. The index has gained 14 percent this year, led by a 41 percent jump in Columbus, Ohio-based M/I Homes Inc., a 31 percent increase by Standard Pacific Corp. in Irvine, Calif., and a 28 percent rise in Miami-based Lennar Corp.