How good is the economy? Sometimes it’s hard to tell.

Consumer confidence is down, according to New York-based research firm Conference Board Inc., whose Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 54.3 in November to 52.5 in December. The index averaged 96.8 during the most recent economic expansion, which ended in December 2007.

The number was lower than the lowest projection of a survey of Bloomberg economists, who projected the index would increase to 56.3.

“I don’t think we’re going to get back to normal for quite some time, maybe 2012,” said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at Lexington, Mass.-based IHS Global Insight, in an interview with Bloomberg.

Still, retail sales rose 4.8 percent for the week ended Dec. 25 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The numbers were likely helped by shoppers who were given Christmas Eve off because Christmas fell on a Saturday. ICSC and Goldman Sachs said retail sales are on track to rise 4 percent in November and December compared with 2009, though the number could be negatively affected by the snowstorm in the Northeast.