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Lack of credit, new inventory may lead to quicker recovery

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The U.S. commercial real estate market will rebound faster than it did following the 1990s downturn, according to Marc Halle, a manager of the Prudential Global Real Estate Fund.

One reason for the hopeful outlook, Reuters reported, is that a lack of available credit may keep new inventories from hitting the market for up to next five years.

“Last time, it took five years for real estate values to go down to where they bottomed,” Halle said. “We’ve done that now in about two years. So we are going to see a faster recovery, a faster write-up in the market.”

Halle said as new supplies are limited and property values bottom, institutional investors, who are traditional holders of large properties, are seeing multiple bids on assets.

This has lead to Prudential’s “relatively optimistic” outlook on the office, retail, apartment and hotel real estate markets. Rents are also bottoming, reducing the drag on income, he said, which is an important factor in determining commercial real estate values.

Yet many other investors expect the number of commercial real estate delinquencies to rise as property owners faced with maturing loans on the horizon are forced to liquidate assets.

Those factors, which put downward pressure on values, signal that commercial property fundamentals are still in decline.

But Halle said his outlook is for properties in major cities as opposed to smaller or mid-sized markets, which some investors have said will continue to suffer most.

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