Iowa’s rural mainstreet index below growth neutral for 6th straight month

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Iowa’s rural mainstreet index sank below growth neutral for a sixth consecutive month, dropping to 38.8 in February from 44.3 in January.

The state’s farmland price index also declined, falling from 61.4 to 54.4. Iowa’s new hiring index, however, increased from 45.1 to 45.7 in February.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2023 were $1.5 billion, which was down 26.5% from $2.1 billion in 2022.

The 10-state region’s overall reading fell to 46.2 from 48.1 in January, marking the sixth straight month that the overall rural mainstreet index has stayed below growth neutral. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Higher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and a credit squeeze are having a significant and negative impact on rural mainstreet businesses and on rural mainstreet
farmers,” Ernie Goss, Creighton University’s chair in regional economics, said in a prepared statement.

In other regional findings from the report:

  • The farmland price index dropped to 57.7 from 64.0 in January. The index has remained above growth neutral for 51 consecutive months. “Creighton’s survey continues to point to solid, but slowing, growth in farmland prices,” Goss said. “Approximately 19.2% of bankers reported that farmland prices expanded from January levels.”
  • The farm equipment sales index increased to 49.5 from last month’s 47.9. “This is the eighth time in the past nine months that the index has fallen below growth neutral,” Goss said. “Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weaker grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment.”
  • The loan volume index declined to 66.0 from 71.9; the checking deposit index plummeted to 48.0 from January’s 62.0; and the index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments slipped to 60.0 from 62.0.  
  • The new hiring index decreased to 49.0 from 50.0 in January. “Approximately 78% of bankers reported no change in hiring from January’s hiring activity,” Goss said.
  • The home sales index slumped to 35.4 from 38.0.
  • The retail sales index for January also declined, falling to 44.0 from 46.0.