The Elbert Files: Caucus polls’ fine print
“Do you read the fine print?” asked my friend K.C., when I saw him standing inside Jaume Plensa’s “Nomade” sculpture in the John and Mary Pappajohn Sculpture Park.
It seemed an odd question, given that the oversized, stainless-steel letters that form a 25-foot-tall depiction of a crouching child, are anything but small. Plensa has said the letters represent building blocks for the words and ideas that shape events.
“Nobody reads the fine print,” I said. “At my age, I have enough trouble reading big print.”
“I agree, but there’s one exception,” he said, smiling.
“What?” I asked.
“Political polls. If you read the small print that describes how a poll was conducted and who was interviewed, you can learn a lot.”
“Give me an example,” I said.
“Take the latest Iowa Poll,” he said, “the one that shows 51% of Republican caucus-goers say they will back Donald Trump.”
“I find that hard to believe,” I said.
“You are not alone,” K.C. said. “Even Republicans have a hard time believing 51% of their fellow party members are so clueless that they would support an accused criminal, proven liar and someone facing sexual misconduct allegations for president.
“And they’re probably right,” he added. “I can’t imagine any of my Republican friends thinking that nominating Trump would be anything but a disaster.
“But that’s not what the poll says,” he continued. “And the Iowa Poll has a great track record.”
“Now I’m really confused,” I said. “What exactly does the poll say?”
“It says 51% of Republican caucus-goers want to nominate Trump,” he said, emphasizing the words “caucus-goers.”
“The thing that most people don’t understand is that caucus-goers represent fringe factions. It doesn’t matter if it’s Republicans or Democrats, historically the people who attend Iowa’s presidential caucuses have always been more radical than their parties as a whole. Especially Republicans in recent years.
“Just look at the last three caucus winners: Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz,” he continued. “Do you even remember who any of them are?”
“So,” I said, “where can I find this fine print?”
“It’s usually at the end of the news story, under a heading that says something like, ‘About this poll.’ It tells you how and when the poll was conducted and who was interviewed.
“For the most recent Iowa Poll, it says more than 3,700 people were contacted by telephone and narrowed down to a core group of 502 registered voters who said they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.
“If you’re a Republican who won’t attend a caucus, or even if you are undecided about attending a caucus, you don’t get asked about Trump or any of the other candidates. You have to say you will ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ attend a caucus to get asked the real poll questions.”
“Why the tight screen?” I asked.
“Because they want the people they interview to replicate as close as possible the group that will show up caucus night. If you are not going to caucus, and most Republicans won’t, they don’t care what you think about Trump or Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis.
“And even those 502 people they interviewed probably aren’t as radical as the people who will actually show up caucus night, because it includes people who say they will probably attend a caucus. History shows that most people who say they will probably attend don’t actually go.
“It’s the really hardcore people who go to caucuses and pick presidential candidates,” he said, as he walked away from Plensa’s oversized letters that make, if not sense, at least a sensible image.
Dave Elbert
Dave Elbert is a columnist for Business Record.