The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index fell below growth-neutral for the seventh time in 2024, sinking to 48.7 in December from November’s 49.6. The index, covering a nine-state region from Minnesota to Arkansas, ranges from 0 to 100, with a score of 50 representing growth-neutral.

“Manufacturers in the nation and region continue to shed jobs,” Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics at Creighton, said in a news release. “In terms of impending economic threats, such as an East/Gulf Coast longshoreman strike looming on Jan. 15, approximately 45% of supply managers expect a recession in the first half of 2025.”

Iowa’s overall December index dropped to 40.8 from 44.7 in November. New orders in the state fell to 44.3 from 45.6, production or sales declined to 42.1 from 45.9, delivery lead time slumped to 45.4 from 51.6, employment improved to 47.8 from 38.9, and inventories dropped to 24.6 from 41.7.

According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, Iowa had a $1.4 billion drop in 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports compared to the same period in 2023, a 9.9% decline.

The regional hiring gauge remained below growth-neutral for the 12th month but improved slightly to 46.4 from November’s 44.4. Regional manufacturing employment declined by 4,500 jobs for 2024, while U.S. manufacturing employment sank by 73,000 jobs, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The December wholesale inflation gauge rose slightly to 57.1 from 56.6 in November.

“The regional inflation yardstick has clearly moved into a range indicating inflationary pressures still modest but moving somewhat higher,” Goss said. “As a result, I expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at its Jan. 28-29 meeting.”

The confidence index, which looks ahead six months, dropped to 52.8 in December from 55.6 in November.