The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index climbed above growth neutral in December, increasing to 50.3 from 42.2 in November.

The index is a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas and ranges between 0 and 100, with 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Even with the positive bounce in December’s reading, supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the 2024 economy, with 46% expecting a 2024 recession in the first half of the year,” Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics at Creighton, said in a prepared statement. “Less than one-fifth, or 19%, anticipate an economic expansion in the first half of 2024.”

Iowa’s overall December index rose to 49.7 from November’s 44.6. New orders in the state climbed to 49.6 from 46.6, production or sales bumped up to 40.0 from 34.1, delivery lead time improved to 63.5 from 44.6, employment dipped to 46.6 from 48.7 and inventories remained unchanged at 48.9.

According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the state’s manufacturing sector boosted employment by 2,500 jobs, or an increase of 1.1%, with the average hourly wage rate decreasing by 0.2% for the period, well below the 3.1% increase in consumer prices.

After two straight months of readings below growth neutral, the hiring gauge increased to 50.0 from 42.5 in November.

“Over the past 12 months, according to U.S. Bureau of Statistics data, the region’s manufacturing sector shed employment by 4,400 jobs, or 0.3%, with the average hourly wage rate expanding by 3.4% for the period, or above the 3.1% increase in consumer prices,” Goss said.

The wholesale inflation gauge for the month plummeted to 57.7 from November’s 71.1, and supply managers expect prices for inputs that their firm purchases to rise by 5.9% in 2024.  

The confidence index, which looks ahead six months, slipped to 35.2 from November’s 35.8.