After climbing above growth neutral in December and January, the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index dropped below the 50.0 growth neutral threshold for February.

The index is a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas and ranges between 0 and 100, with 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The overall index, much like the U.S. reading, has hovered around growth neutral for the last three months. Additionally, supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the 2024 outlook, with only 14.3% expecting a 2024 economic expansion,” Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics at Creighton, said in a prepared statement.

Iowa’s overall February index slipped to 49.3 from 51.8 in January. Components of the overall February index included new orders at 50.7, production or sales at 40.6, delivery lead time at 57.9, employment at 39.1 and inventories at 61.2.

Over the past 12 months, Iowa’s job openings sank by 27,000, or 24.5%, while layoffs fell by 1,200, or 16.8%, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

After climbing to 50.0 for December, the nine-state region’s employment gauge tumbled to its lowest level since June 2020 in January at 39.1 but rose to 42.9 in February.

“Over the past 12 months, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the region’s job openings declined by 156,000, or 16.3%, while the number of layoffs fell by 2,000, or 1.1%,” Goss said.

The wholesale inflation gauge for the month fell to 61.9 from January’s 71.7.

The confidence index, which looks ahead six months, improved slightly to 33.4 from 31.9 in January.