Creighton University has released its Mid-America Business Conditions Index, which reached a 20-month high in March, and its Business Confidence Index, which was low, offering mixed signals for the Midwest economy.

The Mid-America Business Conditions Index is an economic indicator for a nine-state region from Minnesota to Arkansas. The index moved to its highest level since July 2022, at 56.7 for March. February’s index was at 52.0; growth-neutral is 50.0.

“The Creighton survey is recording significant volatility, much like other regional economic measures,” Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics at Creighton, said in a press release.

He said proposed and implemented tariffs are producing economic volatility and affecting supply managers’ economic outlook.

“This week’s tariff announcements by President Trump are expected to add to the economic uncertainty and volatility,” he added.

Confidence: Meanwhile, the March Business Confidence Index fell to 37.5, its lowest level since September; down from February’s 45.7. “Due to concerns regarding global economic tensions and rising tariffs, only one in five of supply managers expect improving business conditions over the next six months,” said Goss. The Business Conditions Index, which uses the same  methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management, is produced independently of the ISM.

Employment: The March employment index soared to 67.6, its highest level since July 2022, up from 51.2 in February. About 30% of supply managers reported more job applicants than openings, while 20% indicated more openings than applicants. The remaining 50% reported that the number of applicants and openings was balanced.

Wholesale: The wholesale price inflation gauge increased, which typically indicates expanding inflationary pressures. It rose to 63.7, its highest level since May 2024. Goss said he expects the Federal Reserve to hold off on any interest rate change at its next meeting on May 6-7.

Inventories: The regional inventory index fell to 32.5 from 51.4 in February. “After adding to inventories in the first two months of 2025, in order to front-run tariffs, firms pulled back on their inventory buildup,” said Goss.

Trade: Goss said recent declines in the value of the dollar are making U.S. goods more competitively priced abroad, pushing new export orders to 52.6 from 44.6 in February. The regional March import index was 32.6, down from February’s record high 68.2.

According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, the regional economy began the year with $7.15 billion in manufacturing exports, compared with $7.14 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 0.2% gain.

In terms of export gainers, Arkansas registered the top gain with a $199.1 million addition, and Kansas recorded the largest loss with a $122.3 million reduction in the export of manufactured goods.  

In other findings from the March Business Conditions Index, new orders increased to 55.9 from 50.4 in February, the production or sales index rose to 55.4 from February’s 51.2, and the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies increased to 56.0 from February’s 55.7. Higher readings indicate rising supply chain disruptions or delays.

In Iowa, the state’s Business Conditions Index for March climbed to 56.3 from 44.5 in February.

Components of the overall March index were: new orders at 55.9, production or sales at 54.8, delivery lead time at 56.2, employment at 66.9, and inventories at 47.9. According to ITA data, the Iowa economy began the year with $1.1 billion in manufacturing exports, compared with $1.2 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 7.6% reduction.

Comments from regional supply managers in March include:

• “The tariffs on steel products from abroad have caused a 36% increase for domestic steel in the last four weeks. Now it almost does not matter if we buy expensive domestic steel without tariffs or foreign steel with tariffs.”
• “Lots of economic issues that continue to make forecasting very difficult. However, the U.S. economy is still strong, and we are seeing sales growth.”
• “A year ago, the butter market average of the previous week at the CME was $2.829. This week it is $2.3325. At the start of the year, it was $2.5544 per pound. Steadily heading down.”
• “Surprising how 100 days impact sentiment and create new ‘fake news.’ I am hopeful that we can move from a culture of gaslighting to a culture of fact over fiction.”
• “While the tariffs present another challenge to the supply chain, they are not insurmountable and are one solution to much larger issues with these targeted countries of China, Canada and Mexico, as well as the EU.”
• “The U.S. either continues down the path of bankruptcy and its demise or comes out fighting for its very existence and world economic dominance! This is something the Chinese, Romans, Ottomans, Persians, Britons and many others failed to accomplish. Procurement plays a major role in this global theater!”
• “Taking steps to mitigate tariff impact. Already implemented a surcharge to account for the 25% tariff on incoming steel. Non-domestic sales are strong, presumably due to front loading.”
• “As a business owner, our President is doing some interesting things with the economy.”

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.