The U.S. and Iowa economies began 2024 with strong job numbers, low unemployment and months of rising inflation that appeared to be nearing a plateau.

The Jan. 5 jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics shows 216,000 jobs were created nationwide in December 2023 with a steady seasonally adjusted 3.7% unemployment rate, capping 36 months of consecutive jobs growth.

Iowa’s unemployment rate in December sat below the national average at 3.3% with a 68.1% labor participation rate, according to Iowa Workforce Development. 

The recession that many economists feared in the early months of 2023 has not materialized, and the Federal Reserve has hinted that it’s done with its string of interest rate hikes it began in March 2022 from .25%-0.5% to 5.25%-5.5%, according to Forbes.

The indicators appear stronger than expected, but the Business Record wanted to know what you think about where the economy is headed this year. 

We recently surveyed readers to get a sense of where you predict the Iowa economy is going. The survey asked respondents to rank on a scale of 1 to 5 what the state’s economy will do, 1 being regress dramatically; 2 regress slightly, 3 stay about the same; 4 improve slightly; and 5 improve dramatically. 

Given that ranking, the Business Record asked what respondents thought the impact of the economy will be on their particular industry in 2024.

Here is a sample of what readers said:

Human Resources and Education
Jackie Norris, Des Moines School Board chair , President, Horizon Group
4-Slightly improve
The economy will likely improve while fully funding education will not happen in Iowa. High-quality education is critical to ensure Iowa’s long-term economy can prosper.

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Economic Development
Tiffany Tauscheck, President and CEO, Greater Des Moines Partnership
4 – slightly improve
Our investors indicated confidence in the economy in a recent survey, and momentum continues across the region. There are significant quality of life projects taking place across our 11-county region, and we see 2024 as a strong year for economic development expansion projects. We will continue to work with investors, affiliate chambers of commerce, members and stakeholders from throughout the region to move the needle on economic development as well as talent attraction and development. 

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Jimmy Olsen, Executive director, Des Moines Downtown Chamber of Commerce
3-Stay about the same

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Arts, culture and entertainment
Matthew McIver, Founder, Mclver Communications 
3- Stay about the same
Arts and culture industries are still grappling with changes brought about by the pandemic, with the crisis supports now removed. Some are faring better than others.

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Accounting, Strategic Planning and Consulting
Jeff Naig, Managing partner, FORVIS 
2- Regress slightly
I think higher interest rates will slow down some investing in company deals and possibly infrastructure.

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Joseph Benesh, President and CEO, The Ingenuity Co.
2-Regress slightly
Slight contraction; there seem to be fewer resources available for services, and the business environment seems to be headed for increased scarcity.

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Anna Mason, Owner, Anna Mason Consulting Ltd.
3-Stay about the same
I think Iowa businesses may invest less in training but be more focused on hiring. Therefore, I think my business focus will shift from training offerings to help with hiring. 

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Kevin Pokorny, Owner and consultant, Pokorny Consulting
2-Regress slightly
The volatile political situation, both in Iowa and the U.S., will continue to have a negative ripple effect on the economy and general public welfare, which creates uncertainty in the marketplace and erodes trust in our institutions. We may have some dark days ahead of us.

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Construction
Grant Taylor, Vice president, Hansen Co. 
4 – Improve slightly 
With rates predicted to drop, this should help development. It feels like there is money and desire to develop, and the rate drop will be the incentive needed for projects to move forward.

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Real Estate and Development
Bill Wright, Managing director, CBRE Inc. 
3-Stay about the same
I anticipate that 2024 will be “more of the same” as 2023; however, I am hopeful that the potential for interest rate cuts in Q3 and Q4 would actuate additional investment in commercial real estate, specifically increasing momentum in the capital markets sector.

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Ken Clark, CEO, VIA Group LLC
3-Stay about the same
Interest rates will drive availability and sales in residential real estate. We expect interest will not increase in 2024.

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Cory W. Sharp, Principal architect, FEH Design
4-Improve slightly 
Lowering interest rates I believe will begin to spur additional new development and reinvestment into our communities, and the Des Moines area is posed well for some very exciting development opportunities.

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Nonprofits and Human/Social Services
Michelle Book , CEO, Food Bank of Iowa 
4-Slightly improve
While lawmakers work to create a better environment for businesses to thrive and the economy improves for a majority of Iowans, 11% of the state’s residents live in poverty, and 36% of working households do not make enough to cover the cost of basic necessities. Unfortunately, recent policy decisions have not helped those living paycheck to paycheck and have in fact made life more difficult for frontline low-income workers and those living on a fixed income such as senior citizens and veterans on disability.

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Christine Irvine, Vice president of communications, Oakridge Neighborhood
3-Stay about the same
As a nonprofit, we rely heavily on corporate and community partners to ensure the financial sustainability of the human service programs we offer. A flat economy can pose challenges in strengthening revenue streams and addressing increased demand for services, but we know the Central Iowa community values the rich mission of Oakridge Neighborhood, so we remain confident in their unwavering support.

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Melissa Vine, Executive director, The Beacon
2-Regress slightly 
The nonprofit industry needs to evolve in order to remain viable. Drawing from healthy business models to improve employee compensation, diversify income streams, and generate healthier work environments is vital to success. Sometimes, nonprofit mergers or dissolutions are best for the industry as a whole so dollars can go to the most effective nonprofits.

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David McKenzie, President and chief operating officer, ChildServe
5-Improve dramatically
High demand, high growth, only limited by workforce availability.

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Banking and Finance 
John Sorensen, President and CEO, Iowa Bankers Association
3-Stay about the same
The direction of the economy will impact both loan demand and the quality of loans on the books of Iowa banks. We expect banks to continue to be challenged by deposit competition in 2024, even if rates trend lower. More costly funding can impact bank net interest margins and, more importantly, the cost and availability of credit. These concepts are fundamental to the business of banking, but they can be exasperated when the Federal Reserve aggressively moves rates up or down.

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Rita Perea, CEO, Rita Perea Leadership Consulting
2-Regress slightly
I consult with people who work in the global financial sectors. Companies and corporations around the world are “tightening their belts’’ in response to inflationary pressures and, also, in preparation for economic slowdown. This can create an opportunity for consultants in all industries to be more innovative with service offerings.

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Jeff Rose, President and CEO, American Bank & Trust
4-Improve slightly
Lower interest rates should reduce loan payments for commercial borrowers and improve debt service coverages and credit quality for banks. Housing costs should moderate as inflation continues to cool and additional homes and apartments are added to the market. 

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Troy Anderson, Vice president and financial advisor, Captrust 
4-Improve slightly
I expect demand for retirement plan advisory services to continue to grow as legislation complicates the landscape and litigation remains top of mind for plan sponsors.

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Eric Lohmeier, President, NCP Inc. 
3-Stay about the same
“Is this Heaven?  No… it’s Iowa” – gonna be messy in Heaven in 2024. Our regional banks/credit unions are, for the most part (you will see a few scattered failures), out of the crisis mode. But as opposed to the liquidity crisis of 2023, in 2024 they will have to face up to their deteriorating loan portfolios, primarily in commercial real estate. Office, spots in multifamily and even warehouses that were under construction and/or financed when Fed funds were zero are coming up on refi[nancing] risk, and equity is scarce as many of these properties are underperforming. The regional and community lenders are the lifeblood for development and business growth, and the focus on their own troubles will be a material detractor to opportunity. If you’re large enough for Wells [Fargo] or JP[Morgan Chase] to care about you (i.e. you’re healthy) then 2024 will be a year to consolidate your market power and growth.

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Kent Kramer, Chief financial officer, Foster Group 
4-Improve slightly
Finance industry will likely continue to grow as rate hikes level off and financing becomes more affordable for housing and lending. Markets continue to surprise [with] 2023 to the upside which creates a higher base to build from.

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Health and Wellness
Ryan Crane, Executive director, NAMI Iowa
4-Improve slightly

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Edward Wollner, Peer recovery specialist, UCS Healthcare
3-Stay about the same
The health care system will continue to be overworked and underfunded, which will only be exacerbated by Iowans continuing to lose access to Medicaid due to the state’s efforts to lessen the number of members last year. This will lead to more burnout and poorer health outcomes for everyday Iowans, which is the antithesis of growth for the economy.

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Jim Green, Principal and client lead, Mercer 
4-Improve slightly 
As tends to be the case, Iowa health care costs will likely grow at the typical 5-7% per annum, independent of the general economy. And Mercer will be highly engaged in supporting employers and their employees.

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Hospitality
Jessica Dunker, President and CEO, Iowa Restaurant Association 
4-Improve slightly 
Although aggressive state-level tax policies may increase Iowan’s disposable income, it is unlikely to help restaurants. Changing consumer behaviors such as: skipping drinks, desserts, and appetizers; sharing entrees and value hunting; and staying home more often will likely remain. Iowa restaurants may even see overall increased gross revenue, but realizing any actual profit will be tough for many. 

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Kim Grzywacz, Sales director, CIT Signature Transportation
2-Regress slightly 
Our industry has not fully recovered from 2020-21. Our top 25 clients are not the same. Those on the list in 2019 are seeing even further regression in their markets as their clients watch their discretionary spending.

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Insurance and Investments
Keith Gredys, CEO and president, The Kidder Co.
3-Stay about the same
As a 401(k) and investment fiduciary, the impact will be minimal. With that said, other than following the swings of the stock and bond market and interest rates, our main issue relates to plan participants staying on track and not being emotionally swayed by the day-to-day drama that will continue to be present in 2024 both nationally and globally.

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Law and Government
Chris Sackett, Partner, BrownWinick Law Firm 
4-Improve slightly 
Economic uncertainty/instability slow down business deals and make them more challenging; and business deals are what drive the legal industry. But the best businesses keep moving; the best deals get done; and the best lawyers help make that happen.

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Manufacturing 
Mike Ralston, President, Iowa Association of Business and Industry
3-Stay about the same
Manufacturing in Iowa will continue to do well, with a bit less pressure on hiring.