GUEST OPINION: Frustration grows for investors
With 2011 winding down, the focus was again back on Washington, D.C. This week, the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction, a/k/a the “supercommittee,” was duty bound to report a bill that would reduce Uncle Sam’s debt by $1.2 trillion. Failure would cause payroll tax cuts and extended unemployment benefits to expire at year’s end, the Bush tax cuts to expire at the end of 2012 and the Defense Department and discretionary spending programs to be cut by $1.2 trillion in 2013.
With the consequences unattractive, the supercommittee was not designed to fail, but it did. The same political divide that pushed the government to nearly default on its debt last summer again prevented our elected officials from establishing a greater degree of fiscal responsibility in the management of the nation’s finances. Given the crisis atmosphere brewing in Europe, there was no better time for the United States to take leadership in what is becoming a global battleground against economic stagnation and debt.
Unfortunately, the opportunity was lost, and the blame game is in high season. No wonder our calls to Europe to control contagion ring hollow.
The financial markets have given investors an extended roller coaster ride in the past few months, from signs of a double-dip recession in the United States last summer to a financial blowup in Europe. As for the double dip, it didn’t materialize. Instead, the data points have been quite encouraging for the past several weeks. Unemployment claims have moved down, housing shows signs of improvement, consumer spending has been consistently decent and small business confidence is ticking up.
However, the political and financial news out of Europe has been disturbing. Moments of progress and rumors of breakthrough give way to the sober reality of Italian and Greek political turmoil and lack of consensus about the role of the European Central Bank. Amid the drama, the financial markets are nervous, and banks are scurrying to shore up their capital.
Although the times are different, the financial meltdown of 2008 is not ancient history. In fact, the world is now dealing with the longer-term effects of that meltdown.
If the financial markets could exhibit patience, chances are Europe works through its fix. Spanish, Italian, French and other governments are trying to cut spending and raise taxes without choking off growth.
Ultimately, it is only a growing economy that can overcome the mountains of debt. The fix is not quick, and patience could be key. Europe and the Germans are apt to move at their pace. Yet market forces are restless and will be difficult to ignore as they likely exert considerable pressure in the days to come.
For investors, the volatility and uncertainty are frustrating. Given rock-bottom interest rates, playing it safe yields little, and growth strategies may seem overly risky.
Isn’t it interesting, even maddening, to think that if the politicians would have more of the will to find common ground instead of the will for re-election, more opportunities might lie out here for investors and savers.
Peter Percival is a registered financial adviser who can be reached at peter@ppercivalndfinancial.com.