GUEST OPINION: Predictability and the economy
“Frustrated executives say political impasse slows hiring, investing” read the headline in the Washington Post.
The June 26 article described the impact of the partisan fight in Congress about the national debt, budget and taxes. It quoted executives from large and small firms who asserted that business people are less concerned about policies that they might disagree with, such as higher taxes, than about uncertainty.
This is a well-known phenomenon, but never has the uncertainty factor descended on the private sector with more energy than in the past two years.
It also has a huge impact on consumers. A yacht dealer and broker in the Pacific Northwest told me that his sales are abysmal, mostly because potential customers can’t project their personal finances forward and plan their lives.
He commented: “I have a lot of retired or about to retire folks who are looking to spend more time on a boat and so want to upgrade. A lot of my old customers have told me they need to wait and see what’s going to happen with their Social Security and their Medicare. So for me: No boat sales!”
These boats are built in the United States; the collateral damage is that many jobs in the boat building, outfitting, transportation and maintenance industries are flat. That’s lots of lost tax revenue for communities and states.
Here in Iowa, when people are not buying and building new homes, Pella Corp. doesn’t sell as many windows. When people are postponing upgrades of their appliances, Amana’s sales go flat.
In agriculture, the House freshmen are not very keen on what they see as “big government” spending on ag subsidies and tax breaks for large corporate farms. The ethanol subsidy is another program with a big bull’s-eye painted on it.
Yet, think back a few years ago when the United States embarked on a huge program to break our energy dependency on unstable countries. We asked entrepreneurs, university researchers and farmers to launch a virtual Marshall Plan to find ways to make fuel out of crops.
We developed major ethanol production plants. Now there is a real probability that the incentives to jump-start this industry will be slashed out of the federal budget.
At the same time, there is pressure for farmers and plant owners to convert from corn- and soy-based fuels to “biomass.” That would involve massive redesign of plants, planting, harvesting and storage. “How long will THIS fad last?” asked a friend who farms and is a major investor in ethanol facilities.
Yes, we need to bring spending under control and readjust the revenue/spending ratio to reduce the debt. We also need to come to a stable and predictable political environment so businesses and consumers can plan their finances. Until we do, we will stagnate.
Steffen Schmidt is a professor of political science at Iowa State University.