Housing crisis has plenty of victims
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Tired of hearing about the housing and mortgage crisis? Too bad, because it’s not going away anytime soon. The fallout will take years to play out, and the public will marvel at effects no one anticipated.
For those who love to blame greed, there is no shortage of villains in this burst bubble. But not getting enough attention are the victims of unintended consequences and the economic impacts their losses will have on the overall economy for years to come.
With the Regency Homes collapse, the painful impacts on subcontractors and new homeowners are obvious and local for the first time. What is playing out in Regency subdivisions mirrors what has happened all over the country, despite the mentality that “it won’t happen here.”
It IS happening here, as it will happen just about everywhere, and Regency is only the tip of the iceberg. The impacts will not be limited to subprime borrowers or greedy people who got in over their heads. Even the smug, who have played the housing bubble conservatively, will be hurt.
The problems will be felt in every community where homes are sold for lower-than-expected prices. As these sales are recorded, they will gradually lower the appraised values of surrounding homes in competing developments. The more developments in which this occurs, the more pronounced and rapid the decline in value.
Will it be catastrophic? Probably not, but it will definitely hurt those borrowers at the margin when taken in tandem with tougher mortgage lending standards. The groups of people hurt the most will be small business owners and families looking to send kids off to college.
Small business owners and budding entrepreneurs will face credit obstacles. Commercial lenders are tightening their standards, and it has always been challenging for new business owners to get credit. Start-up businesses often have relied on credit cards and home equity loans to get up and running and compensate for cash flow problems in the beginning. These avenues will be less available due to the housing crisis.
Borrowing money on your home to fund your business has previously held advantages, particularly with the residential interest rate so low, as many business owners have found. But what will happen to business growth when home equity is declining and credit is tougher to get?
For families with students who are set to go off to college in the next few years, the prospects for funding education are not bright. Many families who wanted to use equity in their homes to fund their children’s education will find that they no longer qualify, whether because of declining equity or a combination of tighter lending standards and lower home values.
If those students can qualify for a federal loan program, they will receive a low interest rate around 6 percent. But many will not qualify and will be forced to look for private lenders and face higher rates.
Small business owners and college students are two important pieces of our future economic growth. Let’s not forget about them when we remember the victims of the housing crisis.
Meghan O’Brien is an economist and program specialist with Iowa State University Extension.