U.S. and Iowa producers may see a bump in export demand — and subsequently higher prices for their crops — following the disintegration of the Black Sea trade deal that allowed grain to be shipped out of Ukraine while that country’s war with Russia continues.

That’s what the Business Record learned after reaching out to Iowa State University agricultural economist Chad Hart.

As with many things we report, the question arose from a conversation during one of our morning newsroom team meetings, so we decided to ask Hart what effect the deal’s demise would have on Iowa and across the country.

Here’s what we learned:

• The end of the Black Sea trade deal will affect not only wheat, although that is one of the most affected crops. It will also affect corn and oilseeds, mainly sunflower but also some soybeans.
  As a result, export sales for those products will see a little bit of a bump.
• Producers in both North and South America will be pressured to increase production to meet the growing demand as buyers of grain from the Black Sea — predominantly low-income countries that rely on Ukrainian grain — look elsewhere to meet their needs.
• The effect on prices should be positive for U.S. producers, but increases will likely be smaller than experienced in the early months of the war.
• There will also be increased uncertainty about global supplies.

The trade deal ended after Russia let it expire recently as the war between the two countries continues. There are concerns that the end of the deal will increase food insecurity and hunger in low-income countries, primarily in Africa.