The University of Michigan has updated its “Current versus Pre-Pandemic Long-Run Inflation Expectations” report from October to include four additional months of data. The report includes seven years of data from phone and internet surveys of consumers, gauging their inflation expectations. The updated report was published today.

“As of March 2025, long-run expectations have climbed sharply for three consecutive months and are now comparable to the peak readings from the post-pandemic inflationary episode. They exhibit substantial uncertainty, particularly in light of frequent developments and changes with economic policy,” the report stated.

The survey measurement ranges from 0 to 6; the higher the number, the higher the inflation expectation. Before the pandemic, scores were relatively stable in the 2-3 range. They increased from mid-2022 through October 2024. Between October 2024 and January 2025, median expectations came in at 3.0, 3.2, 3.0 and 3.2, before jumping to 3.5 in February and increasing to 4.1 in March.

“Inflation uncertainty has grown, likely due to economic policy shifts, though it remains slightly below 2022 levels. Other indicators, such as the 75th percentile and tail inflation expectations, are also trending upward, suggesting continued inflationary concerns,” the report stated.