The Iowa Leading Indicators Index increased to 105.4 in September from 104.8 in August.

When seen together, a six-month annualized change in the index below -2% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0 are considered a signal of a coming contraction.

During the six-month span through September, the index increased 0.3%, an annualized rate of 0.7%, keeping the metric above contractionary signals for the seventh month in a row.

The six-month diffusion index increased to 50.0 in September from 37.5 in August, meaning it also was not showing signs of contraction.

The monthly diffusion index for September increased to 62.5 from 37.5 in August. A diffusion index measures the proportion of components rising in a given time period. Components are assigned values based on how they increased or decreased over the time period and the assigned values for all the components are then added together.

The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.05% increase in September.

Five of the index’s eight components increased month over month in September: Diesel fuel consumption, average weekly manufacturing hours, residential building permits, the national yield spread and the Iowa Stock Market Index. The new orders index, average weekly unemployment claims and the agricultural futures profit index detracted from the index.

Diesel fuel consumption increased 23.2% between September 2023 and September 2024. The 12-month moving average increased to 65.41 million gallons in September from 64.24 million gallons in August.

For September, the 12-month moving average of average weekly manufacturing hours increased to 40.47 in September from 40.33 in August. Average hours were 42.0 during the month of September, over a half hour above the historical monthly average.

Residential building permits were 1,284 in September, up from 931 last year. The 12-month moving average increased to 946 in September from 917 in August. September 2024 permits were 37.9% above September 2023, and 15.2% above the monthly historical average.

The yield spread remained in inversion territory (below 0) at -1.20% during September, up from -1.43% in August. September is the 23rd month in a row that the yield spread has been in inversion. The long-term rate decreased 15 basis points, while the short-term rate decreased by 38 basis points.

During September, 17 of the 27 Iowa-based or Iowa-concentrated publicly traded companies gained value, and seven of the nine financial-sector companies increased during June. With nearly two-thirds of the stocks experiencing gains, the stock market index increased to 133.13 in September from 129.07 in August.

The agricultural futures profit index showed in September expected profit decreases in both crop commodities and cattle commodities. There were expected profits in hog commodities. Compared to last year, new crop corn prices were 14.6% lower, while soybean prices were 23.2% lower. The September crush margin for cattle decreased 2.4% from August, while the crush margin for hogs increased 3.7% from August.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly unemployment claims increased from 2,500 to 2,527. Unemployment claims were 25.4% above September 2023 claims, but 15.2% below average historical claims for September.

The new orders index in September decreased to 40.0 from 42.2 in August. The 12-month moving average of the new orders index decreased to 48.4 from 49.0 in August.

The full report is available online.