NOTEBOOK: Poll shows Dems gave Grassley a free ride by nominating Judge
DAVE ELBERT Oct 11, 2016 | 7:17 pm
1 min read time
220 wordsGovernment Policy and Law, The Insider NotebookThe Iowa Poll published today shows that longtime U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley dodged a very real bullet in June when Democrats nominated the aging Patty Judge over up-and-coming state Sen. Rob Hogg of Cedar Rapids.
Not surprisingly, the poll, conducted Oct. 3-6, shows Judge, 72, a former lieutenant governor and agriculture secretary, trailing the 83-year-old Grassley, 36 percent to 53 percent among likely voters.
But the poll also asked an unusual question of people who said they would not vote for Judge. The question was: “Would you be open to voting for a Democratic candidate if it were not Patty Judge?”
A full third (34 percent) of those who did not support Judge — Grassley’s 53 percent, plus 11 percent in other categories — said they would be open to voting for a different Democrat. Another 24 percent were “not sure.”
Now, assume that a different Democratic candidate held on to Judge’s core support of 36 percent and attracted a substantial portion of the 34 percent who said they would be open to another Democrat.
If that substantial amount were 22 percentage points, or a little less than two-thirds of the people who said they were open to a different candidate, that other Democrat would be locked in a dead heat with Grassley, instead of trailing by 17 points.
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