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Rural mainstreet economy sinks to 2024 low

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Iowa’s rural mainstreet index slumped to 44.2 from 49.5 in July, while the 10-state region’s overall reading fell below growth neutral for a 12th straight month, at 40.9, its lowest mark since November 2023.

The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and declining farm exports pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 12th straight month,” Ernie Goss, Creighton University’s chair in regional economics, said in a prepared statement.

Iowa’s farmland price index improved to 53.4 from 50.9 in July, and its new hiring index increased to 51.6 from 49.0 in July.

Exports of agricultural goods and livestock for 2024 year to date were down by $12.6 million, or 1.4%, from the same period in 2023, according to trade data from the International Trade Association.

The region’s farmland price index dropped to 45.5 from July’s 52.2.

The farm equipment sales index for August slumped to 16.7, its lowest level since January 2017, and down from July’s 19.0. “This is the 13th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral,” Goss said. “Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment.”

Other regional findings from the report include:

  • The August loan volume index increased to 75.0 from July’s 67.4; the checking deposit index dropped to 34.1 from 45.5; and the index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments fell to 52.3 from 65.9 in July.
  • The new hiring index for August dropped to 45.5 from 50.0 in July, but the home sales index rebounded to 50.0 from July’s 33.3.
  • The retail sales index slumped to 38.6, the lowest reading since November 2020 and down from 39.1 in July.

“High consumer debt, elevated interest rates and weaker farm income are cutting into retail sales for the rural mainstreet economy,” Goss said.