Rural mainstreet index continues slump; farmland prices fall for first time in almost 5 years

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Iowa’s rural mainstreet index increased from 36.7 to 40.6 in May, remaining below growth neutral for a ninth consecutive month.

The state’s farmland price index rose slightly to 52.2 from 52.1 in April, but its new hiring index dipped to 47.7 from 52.1.

Exports of agricultural goods and livestock for 2024 year to date were up 6.4% from the same period in 2023, according to trade data from the International Trade Administration.

The 10-state region’s overall reading for May fell to 44.2 from 45.8. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Higher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and higher grain storage costs pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the ninth straight month,” Ernie Goss, Creighton University’s chair in regional economics, said in a prepared statement.

The region’s farmland price index slumped to 47.9 from April’s 56.5. “For the first time in more than four years, Creighton’s survey is detecting weakening farmland price growth,” Goss said. “Only 4.2% of bankers reported that farmland prices expanded from previous levels.”

The farm equipment sales index dropped to 34.0 from 47.7 in April. “This is the 11th time in the past 12 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral,” Goss said. “Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weaker grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment.”

Other regional findings from the report include:

  • The loan volume index declined to 82.0 from April’s record-high 85.4; the checking deposit index sank to 44.0 from April’s 52.2; and the index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments slipped to 62.0 from 71.7.
  • The new hiring index for May decreased to 50.0 from 56.8. “Approximately 7.7% of bankers reported an increase in hiring from the previous month. This is down from 13.6% in April,” Goss said. Over the past 12 months, the regional Rural Mainstreet Economy boosted jobs by 3.2%, compared to 0.9% for urban areas of the same states, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
  • The home sales index increased to 46.0 from 34.8 in April.
  • The retail sales index for May increased to 46.1 from 41.3.

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