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Rural mainstreet index drops to lowest level since early 2020

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Iowa’s rural mainstreet index fell slightly to 44.0 in September from 44.2, staying below growth neutral for a 13th consecutive month.

The state’s farmland price index sank to 45.7 from 53.4 in August, while the new hiring index rose slightly to 52.4 from 51.6.

Exports of agricultural goods and livestock for 2024 year to date were down by $8.1 million, or 0.8%, from the same period in 2023, according to trade data from the International Trade Association.

The 10-state region’s overall reading dropped to 37.5 from August’s 40.9, marking the lowest reading since the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2020. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and elevated input costs pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 13th straight month,” Ernie Goss, Creighton University’s chair in regional economics, said in a prepared statement.

The region’s farmland price index fell to 43.8 from 45.5 in August. “Only 4.2% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from August levels,” Goss said.

The farm equipment sales index for September increased to 19.0 from 16.7. “This is the 14th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral,” Goss said. “Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and negative farm income are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment.”

Other regional findings from the report include:

  • The loan volume index slipped to 68.8 from 75.0 in August; the checking deposit index rose to 41.3 from 34.1; and the index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments climbed to 56.5 from 52.3.
  • The new hiring index for September dropped to 43.5 from 45.5.
  • The September confidence index slumped to 22.9, its lowest level since November of last year, and down from 27.3 in August. “Weak agriculture commodity prices, negative farm cash flow, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to constrain banker confidence,” Goss said.
  • The home sales index fell to 43.8 from 50.0.
  • The retail sales index dropped to 30.4, the lowest level since June 2020, and down from 38.6 in August.