Rural mainstreet index sinks to four-year low in October

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Iowa’s rural mainstreet index dropped to 37.1 in October from 44.0, staying below growth neutral for a 14th consecutive month.

The state’s farmland price index sank to 38.6 from 45.7 in September, but the new hiring index increased slightly to 52.8 from 52.4.

Regional exports of agricultural goods and livestock for 2024 year to date dropped to $1 billion from $1.1 billion from the same period in 2023, according to trade data from the International Trade Association.

The 10-state region’s overall reading dropped to 35.2 from September’s 37.5, the lowest reading since the start of the pandemic in spring 2020. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales, elevated input costs and falling farmland prices pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 14th straight month,” Ernie Goss, Creighton University’s chair in regional economics, said in a prepared statement.

The region’s farmland price index fell to 38.5 — a six-year low — from 43.8 in September. “Elevated interest rates and higher input costs along with below breakeven grain prices have significantly reduced farmer demand for ag land,” Goss said.

The farm equipment sales index for October decreased to 18.8 from 19.0. “This is the 15th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral,” Goss said. “Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and farm income losses are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment.”

Other regional findings from the report include:

  • The loan volume index improved to 73.1 from 68.8 in September; the checking deposit index increased to 63.7 from 41.3; and the index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments climbed to 63.5 from 56.5.
  • The new hiring index for October rose to 50.0 from 43.5.
  • The October confidence index increased slightly to a weak 29.6 from September’s 22.9.  “Weak agriculture commodity prices and negative farm cash flow, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to constrain banker confidence,” Goss said.
  • The home sales index rose to 46.3 from 43.8.
  • The retail sales index also increased slightly to 36.0, up from 30.4.