Like most historic events, it will take years, maybe decades, to truly appreciate what happened at this month’s Iowa Republican caucuses. But here are some takeaways from ground zero.

This year’s winners include:

• Donald Trump, who put on a surprisingly effective campaign. Trump captured 51% of the vote and the largest victory margin – 30 points – of any contested Republican caucus. Unlike previous efforts, Trump staffers organized a strong ground game that identified caucus-goers, while effectively smearing opponents and igniting fears.
• Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann, the magician who presided over the most expensive and most negative campaign in Iowa history.
  Iowa’s Republican caucuses are basically a beauty contest. Unlike Democrats, Republicans make no direct connection between caucus votes and the delegates they send to national conventions. For years, Kaufmann has diverted attention from that reality, while promoting a fair playing field for candidates. His job this year was made more difficult by a governor who broke with tradition and endorsed a candidate. 
• President Joe Biden, who undoubtedly is licking his chops after Iowans chose the candidate Democrats believe Biden has the best chance of beating.
• Iowa’s Democratic Party was also a winner. By not holding presidential caucuses this year, Democrats turned over the stage to Republicans and bought time to reorganize their broken system away from the national limelight. 
• Iowa media – largely TV and cable services – shared an estimated $120 million of campaign advertising (mostly attack ads). Based on caucus night turnout of 110,298 voters, media spending amounted to more than $1,000 for each vote.
• Hospitality businesses. Hotels, restaurants and car rental businesses in the Des Moines area raked in an estimated $4.2 million during caucus week from campaign staffers and media employees.   

Caucus losers include:  

• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who concentrated his campaign money and talent in Iowa but failed to move the needle, coming in 30 points behind Trump. After the vote, DeSantis gave a speech that was reminiscent of Democrat Howard Dean’s caucus night speech in 2004, which ended with a bizarre scream.  
  DeSantis didn’t scream but gave a full-throated effort that invoked George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, World War II and the Berlin Wall and was peppered with historical allusions to “a new birth of freedom, … a restoration of sanity” and a plea to keep “the sacred fire of liberty” burning.
• The “full Grassley” was another loser. The term refers to Sen. Chuck Grassley’s policy of visiting each of Iowa’s 99 counties every year. Neither DeSantis nor Vivek Ramaswamy – the only candidates to complete a full Grassley this caucus cycle – got much benefit from the travel. Ramaswamy, who spent a ton of his own money on the campaign and claimed to have completed two full Grassleys, got 7.7% of the vote. 
• Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds lost on multiple fronts. Not only did her candidate, DeSantis, have the appeal of a chocolate-coated candy bar in a swimming pool, Reynolds also managed to offend the two men most likely to be our next president.
  The governor regularly trash-talked and turned down offers of assistance from the Biden administration to help feed, educate and provide medical care for Iowa children.
  Plus, she offended Trump by not endorsing him and breaking her pledge to remain neutral. Given Trump’s temper and well-known penchant for revenge, Reynolds must have thought his chances in 2024 were negligible and that DeSantis was a much stronger candidate than he turned out to be. 
  In either case, she was wrong, and her endorsement of DeSantis could result in a cold shoulder from Trump, if he wins.

One final caucus thought from Steffen Schmidt, Iowa State University’s political science wizard emeritus.

“Donald Trump only obtained 56,260 votes,” Schmidt noted. While that is 51% of the Republicans who caucused, it is 7.5% of Iowa’s 752,249 registered Republicans.

“The very low participation rate raises several questions about the value of this victory,” Schmidt said. “But in politics, illusion is more important than reality and that’s what continues to push Donald Trump in the national polls.”