Tough job for next governor

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Every now and then, the candidates for Iowa governor must stop and think: “Do I really want this job?”

As the nation’s governors gathered for a meeting earlier this summer, a reporter for The Cook Political Report opined that being a governor is “the worst job in American politics.”

As the national economy continues to stagger, those problems roll right downhill to the states. “The fiscal problems are just nasty,” said Ray Scheppach, executive director of the National Governors Association. “The hope is that 2011 is the bottom of it, but getting through this next year is going to be tough.”

Not including California and New York, state tax revenues dipped 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2010. Thirty-three states reported declines. Those numbers probably were even worse in the second quarter.

“After record tax declines in calendar 2009, the fiscal conditions of the states remain quite fragile,” according to a Rockefeller Institute senior policy report. “Even if the economic recovery is as rapid as those from prior recessions, it would likely take state tax revenue several years to recover to its previous peak.”

The report notes that state economies usually take 18 to 24 months longer to recover than the national economy.

Gov. Chet Culver more or less has to run; for an incumbent, it’s a matter of pride if nothing else. Former governor Terry Branstad has at least a couple of motivations: Culver appears ripe for defeat, and Branstad couldn’t stay on the sidelines much longer if he wants to get back in the game.

The winner has to hope that we edge back to normal within a year or two after his inauguration. Credit can then be taken, and a bumpy start will disappear in the rear-view mirror.

The question for Iowa citizens is, what will the next governor do to try to speed that return to normal?

Around the nation, states are raising taxes and lowering taxes, almost in dart-throwing fashion.

What choices would our candidates make? Do all you can to draw out the answer.