The Business Record works every day to find the pulse that’s driving business news throughout our state and to make sense of it and provide you, our audience, a variety of perspectives. Our newsroom aims to maintain that vision in 2024. 

To begin each year, the Business Record surveys our audience and key members of the Central Iowa business, nonprofit and civic communities, to find out trends to watch and what might shape the news over the next 12 months. 

We asked readers to submit a response describing a trend they see coming in their industry or the community in 2024. Respondents were asked to consider trends that will influence their industry in Central Iowa, statewide and from a global perspective.

Our survey shows that in 2024, leaders agree that artificial intelligence will become further ingrained in the economy and the workplace. Food insecurity, job training through education and nonprofits supplementing social services will also likely be key topics. 

Our audience appears to have varying outlooks on the strength of the overall economy in 2024. Here are their predictions and trends to watch.

Responses have been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.

– Mike Mendenhall, Business Record associate editor

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Economic Development

Launching a chamber of commerce foundation

A recent national survey from the Association of Chamber of Commerce Executives showed that 87% of chambers nationally have a foundation or are starting one. At the West Des Moines chamber, to secure our future and help solve community needs, we are starting a foundation in 2024 – this also ties into our 100-year anniversary celebration – with the help of community and regional key stakeholders. We are filing our official paperwork in 2024.

Katherine Harrington
president and CEO, West Des Moines Chamber of Commerce

Domestic travel uptick

According to the U.S. Travel Association, both domestic leisure and business travel will see an upward trend in 2024. Domestic travel is forecasted to return to pre-pandemic numbers. Air travel numbers have been down in the past few years, and those are expected to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024, aligning with auto travel. Domestic business travel is expected to grow and continue to recover post-COVID, as well as see an anticipated growth in spending. Spending for both domestic and leisure travel is expected to increase by nearly 4%. As travel continues an upward trend, Des Moines is looking forward to welcoming more visitors.

Greg Edwards
president and CEO, Catch Des Moines

Doubling down on regionalism

Since becoming president and CEO of the Partnership in July, the Partnership team has met with more than 360 business, chamber, nonprofit, city and elected leaders from across the organization’s 11-county region on a listening tour. One of the themes that emerged was the opportunity to further build bridges to connect urban, suburban and rural communities. Regionalism has long been a key to our success in terms of economic growth and the completion of major projects. There is an appetite to increase collaboration throughout the region even further. Our region is uniquely positioned to lock arms and rally around opportunities for economic growth, talent attraction and placemaking.

Tiffany Tauscheck
president and CEO, Greater Des Moines Partnership

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Government and Social Services

Refugee response

The U.S. refugee program has expanded dramatically, and Iowa is stepping up to do its part. We have seen major increases over the last two years in refugee arrivals. 

Loren Bawn
executive officer – operations, Iowa Bureau of Refugee Services

People-centric government

Local governments are increasingly prioritizing people, both within their organizations and externally. Internally, flexible work policies and unique benefits will be used more to retain and attract talent to replace retiring employees and counter negative industry stereotypes. Externally, cities are paying closer attention to the quality of life factors (trails, recreation amenities, entertainment venues, etc.) sought by residents and workers, recognizing that those places with superior offerings will perform better economically and attract and retain a thriving workforce for their own organizations and community.

Curtis Brown
assistant city manager, City of Urbandale

Local governments cut budgets and services

The state of Iowa is on a tax-cutting spree for the wealthy and corporations, forcing local governments to reconsider spending for many priorities, including public education, economic development, affordable housing and food insecurity. Republican legislators are planning more tax cuts that, if implemented, will drastically affect the quality of life we enjoy in Central Iowa.

Claire Celsi
state senator, D-District 16

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Real Estate and Development

Interest rates will smother growth

Carrying costs for new construction at today’s higher interest rates will smother a lot of development efforts. For example, contemplating a $5 million, 31,000-square-foot flex building, financed at a 3.5% rate, would require rent of $8.70 per square foot to break even on financing principal and interest costs during a 30-year mortgage (before land costs, loan to value margins, developer safety margin, vacancy and other costs), or $22,560 per month.

Applying a 7.5% interest rate would require $13.54 per square foot, increasing interest costs over 30 years from $3,083,000 to $7,590,000, adding $4.5 million to costs, at $34,970 per month payments. Add vacancy, lease up, tenant non-payment, and other risks, and most builders will be very cautious before starting new projects that require financing for a substantial part of the project. That $4.5 million would be owner profit at a 3.5% interest rate, but becomes an owner liability at a 7.5% interest rate. Stated another way, using the higher payment amount at 3.5% interest would provide for full payoff in about 16 years, instead of paying for 30 years. 

As rental rates increase, some projects will still pencil out, but the upside is a lot lower and the downside is much deeper.

Rich Eychaner
CEO, Eychaner Properties Inc.

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Strategic Communications and Public Relations

Aligning employees to the mission to achieve business goals

Moving the function of internal communications from tactical to strategic could be the difference-maker in an organization’s success. Today, more than ever before, recruiting and retaining employees is a No. 1 priority to remaining competitive in the market. To do that requires a strong strategy and consistent communication. Your employees, board members and channel partners are frontline brand ambassadors. Do they have the same experience with your organization’s values and messages as your external stakeholders? Are you providing employees with the key points you want your external stakeholders, the media, and influencers to hear? Are you delivering on your mission and connecting the ‘why’ beyond sharing it in the company newsletter? In 2024 and beyond, organizations must focus internal communications on helping employees understand the mission and the impact of their role. Communication teams must arrive at the executive table with a targeted plan that includes a robust internal communications strategy to recruit and retain employees through authentic, layered and multi-channel communications. This strategy will engage employees and motivate them to accomplish the organization’s goals – serving stakeholders and providing value to shareholders.

Ann Appleseth
strategic communication director, Wixted & Co.

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Nonprofits

Consolidation of nonprofits

The antiquated model of overworked, underpaid nonprofit employees has become more apparent post-pandemic, leading to an exodus of employees toward for-profit work or a nonprofit that has evolved to better practices of equity and staff care. This is leading to the shuttering or consolidations of nonprofits.

Melissa Vine
executive director, the Beacon

Food insecurity persists

The dramatic increase in food insecurity that began in April of 2022 will continue to plague Iowans working in sub-living wage jobs. According to Common Good Iowa, a single parent with one child must gross $21.16 per hour to cover the cost of basic needs. The overall median wage in Iowa of $19.19 per hour leaves a considerable gap. And we know many front-line service jobs pay much less. Although inflation is starting to moderate, those unable to cover the cost of basic needs will increasingly struggle to access adequate nutrition to support a healthy lifestyle. With 11% of Iowans living in poverty and 36% of working families not making enough to cover basic-needs costs, there will be a profound impact on the well-being of communities and all Iowans. The need to provide nutritional support for essential workers who make less money than what it costs to live will continue to escalate.  

Michelle Book,
CEO Food Bank of Iowa

Support hubs to address food insecurity

In the world of food insecurity, as long as we continue to see the escalating price of essential commodities, we will continue to see an increased reliance on food pantries and aid organizations. However, food pantries, once seen solely as emergency-relief providers, are transforming into multifaceted support hubs that acknowledge the challenges faced by communities – one that extends beyond hunger alone. These discussions and initiatives about the broader impact they have and the overall well-being of our community members are crucial to address the underlying issues causing food insecurity.

Patty Sneddon-Kisting
executive director, Urbandale Food Pantry

More community need, less resources

Nonprofit and social service organizations will continue to face higher levels of community need while having fewer resources to fulfill their missions. As our Legislature explores additional tax cuts, this will have a continued impact on community services at all levels, including our local governments. We’re already seeing some of this play out locally with Des Moines Area Regional Transit (DART) announcing they may need to cut services, and West Des Moines announcing plans to consolidate their human services department. With this loss of public services comes a greater reliance on the nonprofit sector to meet community needs. Food banks, food pantries and other anti-hunger organizations are assisting record-breaking numbers of people, all while SNAP enrollment in Iowa is at a 15-year low. Iowa cannot continue down this unsustainable path of slashing taxes and starving services; it’s going to come back to bite us eventually. Let’s course-correct before it’s too late.

Luke Elzinga
policy and advocacy manager, Des Moines Area Religious Council

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Health and Wellness

Rural and urban pharmacy deserts

It would be foolish to think the closing of national chain pharmacies in Central Iowa, across the state and throughout the country will provide the same services as that of independent and regional chain pharmacies for our communities and residents.

Michael Wolnerman
vice president/pharmacist, OneroRx

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Banking and Finance

Cloud-to-cloud exchange will transform banking as we know it

The banking industry is on the cusp of realizing a noble ambition we’ve imagined for years – real-time transfer of financial data. It’s nearly a reality thanks to the cloud-to-cloud communication a lot of financial services firms will launch over the next 12 to 18 months. Our friends in the startup community may not see this as groundbreaking, as they are fortunate to have a lot of freedom around the use and sharing of data. Financial services developers, though, understand the revolutionary impact that faster data transfers will have on our industry. The sandbox we financial innovators play in is small, governed by laws and regulations that (rightly) restrict what we can do with the highly sensitive information that flows through our systems. For credit unions and banks – and the fintech community that increasingly supports their growth – faster data means faster identification of trends and patterns. They’ll stop fraud faster, send out hyper-personalized offers to customers faster, spot opportunities for revenue sources faster and even develop highly relevant products faster. Most importantly, credit unions, banks and fintechs will help individuals and families attain financial health much more quickly and in ways that are perfectly tailored to their own noble ambitions.

Pam Brodsack
CTO/SVP technology delivery, Co-op Solutions

Local lenders to reengineer policies, procedures

The slowing economy and rising unemployment expected in 2024 is likely to put lenders on red alert for increasing charge-off and delinquency rates. Community-based financial institutions, which typically step into the void when mainstream lenders bail on subprime and new-to-credit consumers, will batten down the hatches in a different way. Rather than restricting loans to A-paper borrowers, they’ll buoy their people-over-profits approach through stricter adherence to good governance and compliance practices. Rewriting policies to empower local lending decisions and establishing sound procedures for underwriting exceptions are two examples that come to mind.

Darron Dunn
chief service officer, ViClarity

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Tech, Innovation and Education

Greater entrepreneurship numbers

Predictors continue to point toward a recession in 2024, which has traditionally been linked to larger numbers of individuals choosing the path to an entrepreneurial venture. The work within the community to strengthen entrepreneurship support networks – from mentorship and funding to acceleration and support – will help the new entrepreneurs hit the ground running with greater access to needed resources.

Tej Dhawan
co-founder and co-manager, Plains Angels

Skills revolution in education

The “Skills Revolution in Education” is poised to become a major trend as advancements in AI, augmented reality and automation increasingly redefine the landscape of work and income generation. The World Economic Forum’s “Future of Jobs Report” predicts that by 2025, automation and AI will displace 85 million jobs but also create 97 million new roles, many in fields yet to emerge. This shift necessitates an education system that is agile, skill-focused and aligned with these evolving demands.

Historically, education has often lagged behind technological advancements, leading to skill gaps in the workforce. However, the rapid pace of change in AI and automation is accelerating this discrepancy. Industries are evolving faster than ever, with an estimated 42% of the core skills required for existing jobs expected to change by 2022, according to LinkedIn’s 2020 Workplace Learning Report. Consequently, there’s a pressing need for education systems to pivot toward skill-based training that prepares individuals not only for current roles but also equips them with adaptability for future, yet-to-be-defined careers.

Moreover, the way we work and make money is undergoing a transformation. The gig economy, fueled by digital platforms, is on the rise, as noted by a report from Mastercard, predicting that the gig economy is projected to grow to $455 billion by 2023. This change emphasizes a more project-based, flexible approach to work, where diverse and adaptable skill sets are more valuable than ever.

In this context, the “Skills Revolution in Education” isn’t just a trend; it’s a necessary evolution to bridge the gap between the skills people learn and the skills people need, ensuring that the workforce remains robust, flexible and ready for the future of work.

Nancy Mwirotsi
founder and executive director, Pi515

Persistent skills over perishable skills

In accordance with the 2023 World Economic Forum Future of Jobs report, the bulk of the top skills needed now and within the next five to 10 years are and will continue to be “persistent skills” (or durable or soft skills) – skills that have a lifespan of longer than seven and a half years. Examples include creative thinking, analytical thinking, curiosity, lifelong learning and agility. While “perishable skills” (or hard skills, which have a relatively short life span before becoming obsolete) are always needed, very few of them made the top of the list.

Rachelle Keck
president, Grand View University 

Greater use of automation and AI

Iowa manufacturers, who out of necessity have been champions of automated processes, will turn to automation (including artificial intelligence applications such as ChatGPT) in even greater numbers. Iowa’s workforce shortage will drive this trend.

Mike Ralston
president, Iowa Association of Business and Industry

Continued growth of AI

Artificial intelligence will grow in leaps and bounds in 2024. Developments in quantum computing will bring the ability to solve complex problems on the horizon. Expect more legislation on AI, with a focus on allowing breakthroughs in the technology and safeguard from inadvertent consequences. Remember what you put into those AI chatbots (ChatGPT) becomes their intellectual property. Never provide confidential information. That information would then be open to anyone else on utilizing that platform. This includes the “bad guys” who are also using AI for nefarious purposes. Keep cyber security on the front of your mind and enforce multifactor authentication within your organization. Many new cyber tools are utilizing AI to help keep you and your business safe. It will be exciting to see these AI developments. 

Paul Schut
Technology adviser, Marco Technologies

Investing in public education

Our community depends on good schools. Central Iowa’s business climate, workforce, cultural and enrichment amenities, and governments are all more successful when we have strong public education opportunities for our students. Recognizing that talent is distributed evenly but opportunity is not, we must come together and invest in public education, specifically Iowa’s largest and most diverse school district: Des Moines Public Schools. Let’s make 2024 the year that we commit to supporting our public schools as they prepare the next generation of Des Moines leaders, regardless of their ZIP code.

Emily Westergaard
CEO, By Degrees Foundation

Quantum computing will turbocharge AI speed, efficiency and accuracy

I anticipate the profound impact of quantum computing emerging as a pivotal trend in 2024, influencing our industry globally, statewide and locally in Central Iowa. With major tech players investing significantly in research and development, quantum computing has the potential to revolutionize computational power, extending its influence into fields like artificial intelligence and cryptography. To stay ahead of this transformative wave, it is imperative for our region to foster local expertise through collaboration with research institutions and educational initiatives. However, the responsible adoption of quantum computing demands a proactive approach to address ethical considerations and security challenges. Ensuring the development of robust cybersecurity measures and ethical guidelines will be crucial for a secure and responsible integration of quantum technologies. By strategically embracing quantum computing, Central Iowa not only positions itself as a hub for innovation but also ensures a leading role in navigating the industry toward a future defined by unprecedented computational possibilities.

Tyler Wyngarden
vice president of strategic partnerships, Technology Association of Iowa

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Human Resources

Investments in human contact

Contrary to popular thinking, in surveys, it is young professionals voting for more return-to-office options over their older peers. Why? COVID-19 taught us all that remote work was not only possible for most office workers, in many cases, it is desirable. It provides employees with much-coveted flexibility and it provides employers with a larger candidate pool to recruit from. 

Work-from-home pandemic requirements also affirmed that people are social creatures. Physical, mental and emotional health suffers when people lack human contact and a change of scenery. Organizational culture is also a casualty. Emerging research reveals that the “out of sight, out of mind” worker is increasingly overlooked for career opportunities.

It is unlikely that the post-COVID world will see a return to 8-5 standard office days. Hybrid is here to stay. Workplace policies will evolve to effectively address the complexities of this new reality. We can also expect a growing trend of leaders seeking creative ways to bring human beings together for collaborative work, education and social activities. In 2024, watch for greater investments in in-person meetings, retreats, events and group learning experiences.

Rowena Crosbie
president, Tero International Inc.

Unstable economy, continual political and social polarization and upheaval

2024 does not bode well for our economy nor trust in our government institutions, both state and national. Election results will be challenged without basis, discontent in our leaders will continue, major political issues will not be resolved, all of which will negatively affect the economy and people’s sense of security. It will be a watershed year that will determine the future fate of our democracy.

Kevin Pokorny
owner and consultant, Pokorny Consulting